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  • Tony Bonk

Wentz > Foles, but...

For our favorite Eagles fan, @_NickFrancis21, I took a look at the Wentz vs Foles debate from a data perspective. The visualizations used below can be found here.


For QB stats, I prefer Yards per Attempt and TD-to-Int Ratio. On the advanced metrics side, we are including FootballOutsiders.com's DYAR and ESPN's QBR (as aggregated by FO).


But first, Size, Age, and Contract:

Wentz: 6'5" 237, 26 yo, and $630k (2018 base salary), with 2019 Cap Hit of $8.5M

Foles: 6'6" 243, 30 yo, and $4M (2018 base salary), with 2019 Cap Hit of $20M


The fact that Foles is 4 years older and will cost the Eagles $20M next year is a huge consideration. The cap difference could equal multiple quality backups, key role players, potential starters.


As much as I love routing for Foles, stat-wise, his numbers lag behind Wentz:


In 2017,

Wentz's breakout year and Foles SB run,

Wentz had a numbers advantage in:

- Yards per Attempt: 7.6 vs 7.2

- TD:Int: 4.7 to 4.0

- DYAR: 1,047 (8th) to -114 (not ranked)

- QBR: 78.5 (2nd) to 31.1 (not ranked), however to Foles credit his QBR shot to 81.8 in the post season (would have topped Wentz and only behind D. Watson if compared to regular season)


Additionally, in Went's 13 games that year the Eagles certainly exceeded expectations, averaging +11.8 more point than opponents and 41.1 points per game (covering in 10 of 13 games and going over in 9 of 13).


During Foles 6 games (including playoffs) of 2017, you can assume stiffer competition in those games, however their average margin of victory dropped by 3.1 points, the average spread dropped from -4 to -1.6 (covered 3 of 6), and their average Totals from 41.1 to 36.5 (4 of 6 to the over).


From a numbers perspective, 2017 goes to Wentz (albeit Foles had tougher competition), but... Foles won the Super Bowl.

Wentz vs Foles - 2017

In 2018,

With data through the Phi @ Chi game (not the NO game),

Wentz again had the numbers advantage in:

- Yards per Attempt: 7.7 vs 7.1

- TD:Int: 3.0 to 1.7 (Note, both QBs dropped here, with Foles dropping from 4.0 to 1.7)

- DYAR: 549 (14th) to 74 (26th)


2018 QBR went to Foles,

- QBR: Wentz is 64.2 (13th) and Foles slightly ahead with 67.4 (10th)


A notable drop from 2017 to 2018, was the scoring differential. This incorporates more of a team point-of-view as opposed to the QB, however in Wentz's games from 2017 to 2018 it dropped from 11.8 to -1.3 (convincing wins to coin flip games) and only covering 3 of 11 games. Defensive coordinators and the market caught up to them (or they were still hungover from their SB party). Foles' game were 5.7, still a drop from 2017 data and could be more a result of competition when compared to Wentz's games. However, the Eagles did cover 5 of 6 games under Foles.


Finally, the Totals in the Eagles' games under Wentz jumped from an average of 41.1 in 2017 to 46.4 in 2018, and they subsequently went from going over 9 of 13 to only 4 of 11 in games Wentz started. In Foles' games, the over still increased (from 36.5 to 39.2) and they went over 3 of 6


Wentz vs Foles - 2018

2018, goes to Wentz, but... Foles still won the Super Bowl in 2017.


Average Points Scored by Eagles

Finally, a comparison of total points scored per each QB through their time with the Eagles:


Eagles Average Points Scored

Wentz's 2017 tops the list and also shows how the team's scoring was down for both in 2018.



Conclusion

A lot more factors can be considered, such as defensive stats, time of possession, coaching schemes and personnel, plus relevant injuries (Jason Peters?). However, from not only a contract and age perspective but from a QB numbers perspective:


Wentz > Foles


...but Foles won the Supper Bowl.







Post Script

The Best Year of All

2013 Foles, under Chip Kelly, beats all the stats from above, with 9.1 yards per attempt, 5.2 TD:Int, total 51 points per game.

Foles 2013


 

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