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  • Tony Bonk

Week 9 - Do You Believe in Miracles!? & 2 Wagers


Contest Update

We have been middling all year. To cash in Circa Millions II and Westgate Super Contest, you need to be approximately in the top 3% of contestants. We are most certainly NOT, being less than 50th percentile thus far.


So, at the halfway point of the season, we will need a Miracle to cash (DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES!?!?!?!?!!?!?!). Unlikely, but possible, right that Miracle sweet spot! Praise the Lord!


We are still alive in Circa Survivor, with it down to 331 out of 1,390 starting entries.


Back to Wagers and Picks

Records and Trends for the season thus far, remember ATS is where I am putting my money (still testing / tracking Totals)


2020 Bet Tracking
2020 - ATS Trend

ATS

Only two wagers this week, as many games were crossed off due to injuries or Covid impacting major positional groups (such as Hou's LB core).


We may need to start wagering early in the week to avoid the line moves. Shifting to Sunday is obviously not the best choice, but personal schedule wise, was better for schedule and trying to avoid late Covid impacts. However, either side can be impacted by Covid, so a coin flip to whether it will help / hurt / postpone any respective game.


Wagers

  1. LVR PK (-1, +100, Bet Online)

  2. NE -10 (-10, +102, Bookmaker; note: contests are NE -7 / -7.5

Rounding out the next three for contests, this is one of the rare times I am avoiding a model pick game (NO@Tam-4). The model choices were only tenths of decimal different, and I believe Tam's D can limit Brees' and his lowering average depth of target. That avoidance means the 5th game shifts down to Bal, which lost Humphreys due to Covid, so no perfect choice -> but that's the gamble! Let's enjoy.


3. Sea -3

4. Car +10

5. Bal -1


Week 9, 2020 - ATS Model Results

Totals

A lot of model choices this week, and I crossed off a lot for given reasons. In certain cases, a QB change may help or hurt, so it is dependent on each game situation.


(overs in bold)

  1. NO @ Tam - Under 51

  2. NE @ NYJ - Under 41

  3. Pit @ Dal - Under 44

  4. Sea @ Buf - Over 55.5

  5. NYG @ Was - Under 43

  6. Car @ KC - Over 52


Week 9, 2020 - Total Model Results


Straight-Up

Pit is top Straight-Up pick of the week, no surprise, and let us hope this is not the annual "Steelers lose as heavy favorite by playing down to inferior team" game.


Week 9, 2020 - Straight-Up Model Results


Enjoy Week 9.



...and pray for miracles.




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