Week 9 and The Eight Wagers
Updated: Nov 2, 2019
Results from Week 8 were 7-6 (4-1 ATS, 3-5 Totals) bringing 2019 record to 50-26-3, 65.8%, 19.5 units (20-8 ATS, 71%, 10.2 Units; 30-18-3 Totals, 62.5%, 9.3 Units).
Use the embedded Tableau workbook below to see the yearly trend. Note: it's default is to only include "Filtered" (bettable) games but by selecting FALSE on Filtered you add back in the game to get to at least 5 on ATS.
Byes and the Model
Our model is neural network based using a rolling average of the past 8 games for each team. Now that we approach week 9 and 10, teams who have not had a bye yet are using all 2019 data, whereas next week teams, even with a bye all teams will be using only 2019 data.
There are injuries that week to consider:
- In Was @ Buf - Haskins is the potential starter with Keenum still in concussion protocol as of Thursday morning. I will ignore any Washington bet or game Over due to the downgrade.
- In Cle @ Den - Flacco is out and Brandon Allen (I have never heard of him either) is playing. I will ignore any Denver bet or game Over - however if there is an Under on this game, I will take it because it plays into the QB downgrade (spoiler alert on the Den Under!)
Three out of four ATS picks are road teams and all four total picks are the under. Road teams and unders are trends from testing on 2018 that are holding true in 2019.
Filtered means I put a wager on it and it is within the model threshold of 60% from testing predictions in 2018. Anything not filtered is still ranked by the model but not within the threshold to make it bettable (i.e. too close to call and below acceptable accuracy from testing).
1. NYJ -3 (NYJ @ Mia +3) - Top ATS Pick, Filtered
2. Bal +3.5 (NE @ Bal +3.5) - Filtered
3. Det +2.5 (Det @ Oak - 2.5) - Filtered
4. Dal -7 (Dal @ NYG +7) - Filtered
5. GB -3.5 (GB @ LAC +3.5)
The Jets pick surprised me, as I would have thought Mia would have been picked after being used in the past few weeks. However, they were also getting over 14 points in those games.
The GB pick feels like such a sucker pick with hook on the 3 (making it -3.5). However, I will trust the model here unless there is an injury or significant situation. Finally, it is not within the bettable threshold so it's nice to only have it as a contest picks.
1. Dal @ NYG - Under 47.5 - Top Total Pick
2. SF @ Ari - Under 43 - Thursday
3. Cle @ Den - Under 38.5
4. NYJ @ Mia - Under 41
As mentioned above, due to injuries I am ignoring the Was @ Buf over pick but accepting the Cle @ Den Under.