Week 8 Picks
Updated: Oct 25, 2019
A great week 7, going 8-2-1, bringing our season-long record to 43-20-3 (68%, 19.1 units).
There are a few injuries this week, and since the model is team-stat based, it does not directly account for things like situations, coaching changes, or injuries. It is at our discretion to ignore games at those given scenarios, since the team we are predicting on was not reflective of the team the created the stats we are using (like taking a Jets under and using the Falk QB games).
Matt Ryan may miss the Sea @ Atl game, Brees may start in the Ari @ NO game, and Mahomes is out for GB @ KC.
I mention this because Sea and the under is a model pick. If Atl was pick, or even the over, I'd likely ignore it, however if their opponent is chosen... then it plays into the injury. Regardless, bet at your risk. I am accepting the model picks this week on Sea -6.5, Sea @ Atl Under 47, and GB @ KC Under 47.5.
With 12 picks for Week 8, let's #GetSome.
Note, all ATS games this week are "Filtered", my way of saying they are worthy of a bet.
1. Oak +6.5 (Oak @ Hou -6.5) - Top ATS Pick
2. Sea -6.5 (Sea @ Atl +6.5)
3. Mia +14 (Mia @ Pit -14)
4. Phi +1.5 (Phi @ Buf -1.5)
5. Tam +2.5 (Tam @ Ten -2.5)
All Total picks below are "Filtered".
1. Sea @ Atl - Under 53 - Top Totals Pick*
*Note, Was off the board with Ryan's Injury and now back on. Originally given as a pick at a lower number and now updated to Total of 53 on Friday morning, Oct. 25th.
2. Mia @ Pit - Over 43
3. GB @ KC - Under 47.5
4. LAC @ Chi - Over 40.5
5. Den @ Ind - Over 43
6. NYG @ Det - Over 48.5
7. Tam @ Ten - Over 45.5
8. Cin @ LAR (in London) - Over 47.5*
*Note, this pick added on Friday morning, Oct 25th, after rerunning model for the above Sea @ Atl game and the line on this game dropped from 48 to 47.5. Model rerun included this Over with a 0.5811 classification towards the over (above the 57% threshold to make it a filtered game), not shown in below table.
Usually that Total model is more 'Under' picks than 'Over', just like it has been more away teams than home. Interesting that 5 of the 7 this week are over.
Enjoy week 8.