Week 7 - 5 ATS Wagers, and Track Totals
ATS doing well on wagers (middling in contests), and Totals are back in the dump. Similar story to last year, where we finished over 60% on ATS but nearly 50% on Totals.
The biggest concern in my modeling is overfitting. In the ATS work, so far so good, as we climb up this year and had great results last year (although always nice to have more of a sample). For Totals, testing was near 60% on 2018, then performed at 50% in 2019. After redoing the model, we worked it to be robust enough to be 58% for 2018 and 2019, HOWEVER! we are right back to near 50%.
Call it Covid impact, a handful of teams being more aggressive, better overall QB play, or simply small sample size. Whatever the case may be, my Totals work is not providing fruit. It is worth noting Unders returned last week, with 10 of 14 games going Under. My model normally leans under, so should be great going forward, but I said that all last year (it'll get better soon).
I will track totals the same way, and will call it "wagers" but will avoid placing my own bankroll on it until I can trend it more or rebuild and track more.
We are 4 of 6 six weeks at +$ on ATS.
Totals... not so hot...
Note on Key Numbers & The Odds
I'm taking the Jags today, and their line varied from +7.5 -110 to +9 -130. I'm taking +7.5, and here is why:
-110 implies 52.4%
-130 implies 56.5%
A 4.1% difference
Since 2015 (when XP was moved back) , +8 and +9 have only landed a total of 3.7%. It is pretty darn close to moving up 52.4% (+3.7%) to 56.1%, but we are missing 0.4%.
I can do a lot of things better in my wagering (such as not just wagering on Sunday morning, adding more books for outs, and many more), but it is obvious like that then I'll use the math. I'm going with +7.5 -110 on this one.
See below, and dive into it more here (works best on desktop).
Highlighted numbers add up to be 3.7%.
3, 7, and 6 still top the past 5.5 years.
At some point, I'll revise this screenshot to make it easier for new people to read. For now, I'll simply highlight the model choices, with the Wagers and Top 5 in Green. FYI, model loves away teams again this week.
Top 5 and Wagers line up this week, thus contest picks are what I'm betting as well.
GB -3.5 (-3, -113, Bookmaker)
Buf -11.5 (-10, -113, My Bookie) Line has been dropping after Darnold announced returning
Jac +7.5 (+7.5, -110, Bet Online)
Car +7.5 (+7, -125, My Bookie)
Cle -3.5 (-3, -121, Bookmaker)
Three Unders and two Overs this week. As we said earlier, I'm still tracking and holding myself accountable to these picks, but I'll be laying off betting these until I get a better grasp on them.
Buf@NYJ - Under 46
Cle@Cin - Under 50.5
Sea@Ari - Over 55
Chi@LAR - Over 45
Dal@Was - Under 44.5
The QB changes in the past month for Dal and Was likely help this under.
With the caveat of Darnold returning to NYJ (remember model is team stat based, not player based), Buf is the top SU pick of the week.
Enjoy Week 7.