Week 6 - 3 ATS, 5 Totals, and Flag Plant
It took four week but we are back in the positive for ATS! Our goal every year is to go 60% (what have realistic goals ever done for anyone?!?!).
Week 5 was 4-1 ATS and 0-2 Totals, with everything posted on the site getting up to 50%. Below are a summary of those picks with a few trends lines.
Results For The Year
ATS and Totals, Wagered Games - Week-to-Week Trend
All Picks Posted to the Site - Week-to-Week Trend
Let's get into Week 6.
With a lot of games getting the Covid scare, I initially thought we'd cross off many games due to Covid, but as of Sunday morning those appear to be happening (Den@NE, Atl@Min, and Cin@Ind).
Some games are crossed off due to injury (Ari@Dal) or Coach firing (Atl@Min), and there is one game where I'm going against better judgement and planting my flag in a team!!!
(Using Pinnacle's line as of Sunday 6am EST,
FYI - As of writing BetOnline's site is still down due a cyber attack late last week)
LAR@SF is an obvious "Take SF or nothin game" with the pre-season line at SF -7, look ahead line at SF -3, and now it is SF +3. I have heard many people say you are not a long-term winner if you take LAR after such a line move, you have to grab the value and buck the potential over-reaction.
I'm pushing back. I understand the line moves, and in most circumstances, totally agree! But not in this one. With SF's injuries on the DL, and their secondary being exposed by Miami last week, even if they have decent coverage linebackers I believe the line and trust the model.
I'm planting my flag in LAR-3, and may God have mercy on my soul.
Here are the wagers and top 5:
Wagers, Three ATS this week
Chi +1 (+1, -106, Bookmaker)
Was +2.5 (+2.5, -105, MyBookie)
GB -1 (-1, -110, My Bookie)
Adding two more for our 'Top 5'
4. LAR -3
5. Hou +3.5
Unders may have fought back last week to go 7-7 but Overs still rule the season. Great article here by T.A. Cleveland on the average amount Overs are hitting, showing how books are adjusting and the line is getting closer each week.
Five Totals wagered this week:
GB@Tam - Under 55.5 (U55, -109, Bookmaker)
Chi@Car - Over 44.5 (O44.5, -110, My Bookie)
KC@Buf - Over 57 (O57, -110, My Bookie)
Den@NE - Over 45 (O45, -110, My Bookie)
Det@Jac - Under 53.5 (U54.5, -110, My Bookie)
If you are in Survivor contests, it matters a lot who you already used (I've burned up Bal), and at least 40-50% of pools will likely be on Miami.
I'd stay away from Ind with the Leonard injury (and that's why they are crossed off above for the under).
Enjoy Week 6.