• Tony Bonk

Week 5, I'll Write My Way Out

We are down -3.1 Units on wagers after a 46.2% start to the year. Just as Alexander Hamilton continually used his writing to get through situations, we're trusting in our modeling.

So while it may not be write my way out, it is certainly,

I'll model my way out!
2020 Bet Tracking, Through Week 4, 2020

Looking at our overall trend, then breaking out ATS and Total results so far this year:

Bet Trend, Through Week 4, 2020

ATS Wagers, Through Week 4, 2020

Totals Wagers, Through Week 4, 2020

Let's get back on track. We have five ATS wagers and two Totals for week. Be aware, two games have been shifted due to Covid (Den @ NE to Monday, Buf @ Ten to Tuesday). I cross off both of those games.


Five wagers today, and lines are slightly different than official contests, but I'll use Pinnacle's latest lines for the model and below is what lines I got this morning.

  1. Car +2.5 (+2.5, -107, Bookmaker)

  2. LVR +11.5 (+11.5, -110, My Bookie)

  3. LAR -7.5 (-7.5, even, My Bookie)

  4. NYG +9.5 (+8.5, -110, Bet Online) awesome... lost a point

  5. Ind +1 (PK, -112, Bet Online) awesome... lost a point

Week 5, 2020, ATS Model Results


With lines rising, one of these weeks we will hit those overs! Thankfully, we don't have eight wagers on Totals like we did week 3. Only two this week, and we missed line moves by waiting to Sunday, but I still took these two.

  1. NYG@Dal - Under 52.5 (Under 53, -120 Bet Online)

  2. Phi@Pit - Under 44.5 (Under 43.5, even, Bet Online)

Week 5, 2020, Totals Model Result


For individual Survivor contests, such as the ones on the wagering sites I use, I'm going with SF this week, especially given NE Covid delay (and I've burned Bal already). Avoiding KC since they had a staffer test positive, and hoping somehow (no chance) LVR can upset them if a lot of folks take them!

Week 5, 2020, Straight-Up Model Results

Enjoy Week 5.


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