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  • Tony Bonk

Week 4, 2 ATS and 4 Unders

Last week was NOT good, going 1-4 ATS and 4-4 on Totals. A bright spot was we nailed the 3 overs buuuut Overs are hitting like crazy right now. I was tempted to lay off Totals for a couple weeks and let the lines and stats normalize, but I'm trusting the process (and hoping all the Offensive Holdings and Defensive Pass Interferences go back to close to normal).


Now three weeks in and we far under our goal of 60%, but it is early and a good week goes a long way to increasing those numbers.

2020 Results

Let's dive right into the model.


ATS

Only two games this week are the "bettable" threshold, after excluding Arizona due to their secondary injuries, and the next three are in order of the model. The last game is Ind, which is below Phi and Sea. It is not shown in the screenshot below, but after much debate I excluded those two because of injuries (Sea and Mia's secondary, much of SF and Phi)


  1. LAC +7.5 (@ Tam) --> LAC +7 -105, My Bookie

  2. NYG +13.5 (@ LAR) --> NYG +13.5, -110, Bet Online

  3. Cle +3.5

  4. Atl +6.5

  5. Ind -2.5

Week 4, 2020 - ATS Model Results

Totals

It is HARD to bet Unders right now, so bet at your own peril. I'm going back to the well and have these four:


  1. Buf @ LVR - Under 53 (-103, Bookmaker)

  2. Ind @ Chi - Under 43 (-110, Bet Online)

  3. Cle @ Dal - Under 56 (-108, Bookmaker)

  4. Bal @ Was - Under 45 (-105, Bet Online)

I excluded NO @ Det because as of writing, a Saints player tested positive. Not much news on it now since it was taken off the board and only a couple articles on it overnight. Much more likely to come out closer to kick-off, but I'll stay away.

Week 4, 2020 - Totals Model Results

Straight Up

If it helps, here are my Straight Up rankings for Survivor and ML bets. I did take SF -330 since I made the price -401. The injuries concern me but feel like Phi is dealing with some just as bad injuries.


Week 4, 2020 - SU Model Results



Happy Football.


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