Week 2 - Hold Your Nose
Not a terrible week 1, but could have done better. Next week, I'll start posting the table to show wager and contest results, but for now take it simply as:
- 2-2-1 in SuperContest and Circa Millions
- 4 of 5 picks remain alive in Circa Survivor (thankfully only 1 on Indy, which knocked out approximately 35% of the pool)
- 4-1-1 on wagers (won on LVR, Ari, LAC-Cin Under, Ari-SF Under, Loss on Dal, Push on LAC)
For Week 2, this was a weird week for me with a bad cold most days, but let's dive right in. Remember I'm using three books this year (Bookmaker, My Bookie, and Bet Online).
1. Car +8.5 (-110) Bet Online
2. KC -8 (-108) Bookmaker
Remaining for Contests (not wagering)
3. Was +6.5
4. NYG +5.5
5. Jac +8.5
Note, Was is now up to 7 and Jax is down to 7.5. For KC, it concerns me that over 90% of the bets and money are on them, AND they have Baltimore next week. Feels like a trap but the handicapper inside of me cannot see how LAC can get to 20 points, or how KC stays below 30.
Buf@Mia - Under 41 (-108) Bookmaker
Den@Pit - Under 40.5 (-108) Bookmaker
These were higher earlier in the week, and would love to grab a number above 41 if we are taking the under (especially since 41 and 40 are the most landed on number since 2015 when the XP was moved back). Regardless, model still likes current number.
I will mostly stay away from Survivor picks in this column, as 5 of my 7 readers do not care about it. But for those who do, a couple of cautions this week:
First, and likely the most picked game, SF @ NYJ. George Kittle has been ruled out for SF, who already has a banged up WR core. The only thing the NYJs do well is defend the run, so depending on SF's game plan, it could be closer than expected.
Second, Pit put their second OL man on IR is as many weeks. I (and the model) liked them a ton versus Denver before hearing that, and likely will still put one spot on them, but concerning.
Third, GB versus Det. Feels like GB overachieved last week versus Min (or Min stinks this year) and Det played them very close both times last year. 6.5 seems big but with Det's cluster of CB injuries, I do not see how Det can defend, especially if they are leading and GB starts to go catch-up / pass-happy mode.
No more this week. Next week will have more tables to track our various records.