Week 17 - Grand Finale
My goal was to hit 60% this season, and on ATS wagers, as long as we do not go 0-4 on the filtered picks, we did it! We still have the playoffs, however during testing there were minimal filtered games in the playoffs.
Totals is another story, and much of the off-season will be spent trying to improve that model. Without improvement, I will likely drop it from official wagers and evaluate periodically next year.
ATS filtered games (games worthy of a bet) are 33-19-4 (63.5%, +11 Units), while Totals are 40-39-3 (50.6%, -2.6 Units)
Overall we are at 73-58-7 (55.7%, +8.4 Units).
Go here to see full ATS and Total breakdown on a week-to-week layout (fyi: it works better on desktop rather than mobile).
Let's dive into Week 17, where motivation and situations swing lines like crazy.
Four filtered games this week, after leaving out the Bills game. It may seem contradictory to include the Ravens and not the Bills, since both are playing for nothing, however in this article from oddsshark.com, note how John Harbaugh has a great preseason record (33-15, 68.8%). I think the Ravens are going to show up before their bye. Now the Bills, they said that starters are playing versus the Jets but were unclear with how long. Since they came off of two big games and play a wild card game next week, this has sandwich game written all over it (credit to Marco D'Angelo).
Enough about feelings, back to the model, where outside the Bills game I considered every other 'filtered' game worthy of a bet (and have already done so).
1. NO -13 (NO @ Car +13) - Top ATS Pick of the Week
2. Atl PK (Atl @ Tam PK)
3. Ari +6.5 (Ari @ LAR -6.5)
*Note, most contests have this line at 3.5 and I am still taking Ari at that number. In fact, it was still the #3 ranked game of the week with Ari +3.5.
4. Bal +1 (Pit @ Bal +1)
If one more is needed for contest picks, here is the fifth:
5. GB -13 (GB @ Det +13) - non-Filt
Similar to ATS picks above, I think situations are already considered in the lines and anything egregious I will exclude. For the games the models spit out, I am going with them.
1. NO @ Car - Under 44.5 - Top Total Pick of the Week
2. GB @ Det - Under 43.5
3. Oak @ Den - Over 40.5
4. Phi @ NYG - Over 44.5
Note: Since we moved to a two-model approach for Totals, I highlighted the ones I am using (and those selections are written above). The criteria is a pick must be chosen by both models to be worthy of a bet.
Enjoy Week 17.