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  • Tony Bonk

Week 14 and a Push for First

The two big Vegas contests for picking ATS are the Westgate SuperContest and Circa Sports Million, where both have you choose exactly 5 games against the spread each week. I did not join but have been running a small contest with friends to mimic it each year. Our Top-5 picks (posted on this site) are what I use for that contest.


How am I doing versus the real contests?

Our Top-5 ATS would be in a 4-way tie for 7th at Westgate (top 100 cash) and tied for 6th at Circa (top 10 cash), let's see if that holds through the last 4 weeks...

I am happy with that and may have to join officially next year. (Also, remember Circa does a quarterly contest and we would have tied for first in the September quarterly!)


Below is our 2019 yearly trend and table of results, to see full trend and split on ATS and Total, go here (better on computer or tablet than on phone).


Bet Tracking, 2019 (Filtered)
Results through Week 13, 2019

My goal was to finish over 60% on bets (filtered). We have work to do.


A few notes before we to the picks:

Teasers

After reviewing a process to include teasers, I decided not to include it this year. Primarily because the model targets a binary 'cover or not cover', so changing the line by 6, 7, 9, or 10 has an impact but essentially is being considered to be the market price, not market price plus / minus a teaser line, and needs more work or a different model to supplement the choices.


Totals Model

Totals have been dragging down our overall numbers. To help make better selections, I now include two Total models and using the overall of the two for selections. For example, if a pick shows up in both models (and nothing crazy like a QB injury or coaching change), then I'll use it. However, if a game only shows up in one, I am more likely to ignore it.


On to the picks, #GetSome #NFLPicks


ATS

Three filtered games this week (games to bet), with Thursday night being one of them.

1.Buf +6 (Bal @ Buf +6) - Top ATS Pick of the Week

2. Ind +3 (Ind @ Tam -3)

3. Dal -3 (Dal @ Chi +3)


To round out the Top 5, here are next two:

4. Mia +6 (Mia @ NYJ -6)

5. NE -3 (KC @ NE -3)


Carolina is being excluded due to Riviera's firing and Pittsburgh excluded because of their QB change (and too many Rudolph games in the data).

ATS Predictions, Week 14, 2019

Totals

Three total games this week and I am happy to say last week went 4-1 on Totals to end our recent skid!

1.Ten @ Oak - Under 47.5 - Top Total of the Week

Bookmaker is sitting on 47.5 with -125 juice and most places have 46.5 or 47. I do NOT want to pay -125 but since it does appear to be dropping, I am going to take it now.


2. Ind @ Tam - Under 47

This opened higher and came down. There are a couple 46.5s out, I'm going to take the 47 -115 (do not like the juice!)


3. Dal @ Chi - Over 43

Taking this over now as I see a few 43.5s out there.


Total Predictions, Week 14, 2019

Enjoy Week 14 and Happy Football.

 

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