Week 13, A Total Refresh & Stretchy Pants
Our percentage is steadily dropping but still at 56.7% (59-45-4, 8.6 Units). Totals have been in the dumps for five weeks, now at 32-31-3 (50.8, -1.9 Units).
The bright side, ATS is at 27-14-1 (65.9%, 10.5 Units).
With the poor performance of our Total model, it is time to re-evaulate it. For the Neural Network nerds out there, our old model has an ANN with 3 layers (Tanh, Relu, Sigmoid). That tested at 56.9% for 2018 season, good not great, but what drove me to use that model was the 66.7% it tested for the 'Top-1' (highest prediction) per week. In a drastically small sample size, 66% is hard to trust, but was worth it to me to move forward.
Our new model is a similar setup but changing the activation functions from Tanh, Relu, Sigmoid to Elu, Relu, Relu (note, the ATS model is a two-layer, Elu, Relu). The new Total model tested only a percentage higher, 57% on the 2018 season. Not our desired 60%, still room to improve, but once again, worth it to me to monitor and use going forward.
The takeaway from all that --> ATS model is doing great, Total model is a work in progress.
Update on our overall record:
And our week-to-week, combined ATS and Total (see these visualizations and prediction score versus results here, note it works on mobile but best on desktop / tablet):
And finally, the ATS and Total splits:
Lets get into week 13 and the Thanksgiving day games!
Only one filtered ATS game this week and it is on Sunday:
1. Oak +10 (Oak @ KC) - Top ATS Pick of the Week, Filtered
If you need more for contests, these are the order but for ATS games that I'm putting my own money on, only Oak this week. In our predictions chart below, notice a few games excluded due to injuries.
2. Den +3 (LAC @ Den +3)
3. Bal -6 (SF @ Bal -6)
This is a huge number, but trusting the model on this one as it has been spot on with Baltimore.
4. Buf +6.5 (Buf @ Dal -6.5) - Thanksgiving game, 4:30pm EST
5. Hou +3 (NE @ Hou +3)
All Under from the new model and note that many are around the key number of 47 (most landed on number since 2015, when XP moved back, see more key numbers here, note tablet is much better than mobile for viewing that dashboard). Most of these I am going to wait it out and monitor the total, hoping for an increase before kickoff, ESPECIALLY when it could 47.
1. Chi @ Det - Under 37
Note, I almost crossed this off since Det is likely playing their 3rd string QB, however I think that plays into the under. The number opened at 41 and bet down to 37, so don't like getting a beat up number, but with such a strong prediction score (0.2061) and a backup QB, I am taking it.
2. LAR @ Ari - Under 47
3. Tam @ Lac - Under 46.5 - Hold out and try to get 47
4. Buf @ Dal - Under 46.5 - Thursday 4:30pm EST game - Hold out and try to get 47
5. NO @ Atl - Under 48.5
Happy Lions Day.