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  • Tony Bonk

Week 12, Don't Add Games, Eliminate Them

We are at 59.2% (12.7 Units) on the season, a great number, yet four straight weeks of losses is still disheartening. Regardless, time to dive in and get some.


ATS is still well above expectations, 26-12-1 (68.4%, 11.6 Units). However, Totals have been driving down our overall percentage and now sit at 32-28-3 (53.3%, 1.1 Unit).

Results through Week 11, 2019

A few things to come as we go into the last six weeks of the regular season.


1. I will look to eliminate games more strictly.

With QB and other injuries stacking up, I will be more strict on what games we accept. For example, Oak @ NYJ +3 and Oak is a model pick. However, that includes 3 games of Luke Falk for the Jets, which I do not think is close to their team with Darnold, so unfortunately, that game is crossed off.


2. Teasers!

In the coming weeks I will be including teasers in my pick recommendations. The model aspect of it is not finished but once I confirm the thresholds for what to accept and how to make it sustainable, I will post them.


3. New Totals Model

Early this season, I was happy our Total model's performance (before it took its recent nose dive) but still was unhappy with its testing accuracy. I built a second model that performed better for 2018 data but have not replaced the first one yet. Before replacing our old one, I will reevaluate the new model and compare the two on 2019 data, but expect that we will be getting a new Total model behind the scenes.


Finally, before week 12 picks, here are our trends for the year.


Bet Tracking 2019, Filtered Games (Worthy of a Bet)

And separating out ATS and Totals:

ATS & Total Tracking, 2019

Lets #GetSome #NFLPicks


ATS

Tough decisions on what to include, but I settled on three filtered games after eliminating two.


Oak -3 (Oak @ NYJ +3) and Det -3.5 (Det @ Was +3.5) were the top two picks and also eliminated due to concerns with the input data versus what we will see on Sunday. A few other could have been eliminated (like Jacksonville after Foles came back or Atlanta after they are seemingly a brand new team after Raheem Morris taking over part of the Defensive duties) but I decided to leave those in.


1. Mia +10.5 (Mia @ Cle -10.5) - Top ATS Picks of the Week

Note: Mia was +11 and it came down to 10.5.

2. Tam +4 (Tam @ Atl -4)

3. Jac +3 (Jac @ Ten -3)

Note - Jac +3 is +100 odds right now, meaning it could get to +3.5 soon, however I placed my bet on 3 to make sure I got that number.


If you need more games for contest picks, the next two in line are:

4. NE -6.5 (Dal @ NE -6.5)

5. Bal -3 (Bal @ LAR +3)


ATS Predictions, Week 12, 2019

Total

Only one game eliminated in the Total model (Det @ Was - Over 41.5) due to Driskel likely playing again instead of Stafford. Personally, I like that over, but we are not gambling we are Sports Trading.


1. Jac @ Ten - Under 42

2. NYG @ Chi - Over 40

3. Sea @ Phi - Over 48


Total Predictions, Week 12, 2019

Happy Football.

 

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