Week 12, Don't Add Games, Eliminate Them
We are at 59.2% (12.7 Units) on the season, a great number, yet four straight weeks of losses is still disheartening. Regardless, time to dive in and get some.
ATS is still well above expectations, 26-12-1 (68.4%, 11.6 Units). However, Totals have been driving down our overall percentage and now sit at 32-28-3 (53.3%, 1.1 Unit).
A few things to come as we go into the last six weeks of the regular season.
1. I will look to eliminate games more strictly.
With QB and other injuries stacking up, I will be more strict on what games we accept. For example, Oak @ NYJ +3 and Oak is a model pick. However, that includes 3 games of Luke Falk for the Jets, which I do not think is close to their team with Darnold, so unfortunately, that game is crossed off.
In the coming weeks I will be including teasers in my pick recommendations. The model aspect of it is not finished but once I confirm the thresholds for what to accept and how to make it sustainable, I will post them.
3. New Totals Model
Early this season, I was happy our Total model's performance (before it took its recent nose dive) but still was unhappy with its testing accuracy. I built a second model that performed better for 2018 data but have not replaced the first one yet. Before replacing our old one, I will reevaluate the new model and compare the two on 2019 data, but expect that we will be getting a new Total model behind the scenes.
Finally, before week 12 picks, here are our trends for the year.
And separating out ATS and Totals:
Tough decisions on what to include, but I settled on three filtered games after eliminating two.
Oak -3 (Oak @ NYJ +3) and Det -3.5 (Det @ Was +3.5) were the top two picks and also eliminated due to concerns with the input data versus what we will see on Sunday. A few other could have been eliminated (like Jacksonville after Foles came back or Atlanta after they are seemingly a brand new team after Raheem Morris taking over part of the Defensive duties) but I decided to leave those in.
1. Mia +10.5 (Mia @ Cle -10.5) - Top ATS Picks of the Week
Note: Mia was +11 and it came down to 10.5.
2. Tam +4 (Tam @ Atl -4)
3. Jac +3 (Jac @ Ten -3)
Note - Jac +3 is +100 odds right now, meaning it could get to +3.5 soon, however I placed my bet on 3 to make sure I got that number.
If you need more games for contest picks, the next two in line are:
4. NE -6.5 (Dal @ NE -6.5)
5. Bal -3 (Bal @ LAR +3)
Only one game eliminated in the Total model (Det @ Was - Over 41.5) due to Driskel likely playing again instead of Stafford. Personally, I like that over, but we are not gambling we are Sports Trading.
1. Jac @ Ten - Under 42
2. NYG @ Chi - Over 40
3. Sea @ Phi - Over 48