Week 11, Trust but Verify
A third straight week of losing units, thankfully damage was mitigated with a 5-5-1 record. ATS has still performed well, going 3-1-1 last week however Totals have been the bigger issue. Since going 5-1-1 in Week 7, Totals have gone 3-5, 0-4, 2-4.
Our filtered picks are 57-37-4 (60.6%, +14.8 unit) with ATS 25-11-1 (69.4%, +11.7) and Totals 32-26-3 (55.2%, +3.1)
See the trends on the year for our filtered games (games worthy of a bet), the Tableau dashboard I built this with can be found here.
Separating out ATS and Totals:
Only two filtered games this week.
1. Phi +3.5 (NE @ Phi +3.5) - Top ATS Pick of the week, filtered
2. KC -3.5 (KC @ LAC +3.5) - Filtered
I do not see these moving much and will bet them today.
If you need more games, such as top 5 for contest picks, here's the next three. I keep track of these (see the table at the top of this article, under ATS Top 5 and it is included in "Everything on Site")
3. NO -5.5 (NO @ TAM +5.5)
4. NYJ +1.5 (NYJ @ Was -1.5)
5. Atl +5.5 (Atl @ Car -5.5)
I excluded the Cin @ Oak game since Cin is playing Finley again. We use an eight game rolling average for our team stats, so with most of Cin's games having Dalton start it is worth avoiding.
Just like ATS picks, there are only two this week. Normal there is around five per week, but with this model under performing lately, I'm happy to not load on it.
1. NO @ Tam - Under 49.5
Note, this line dropped from an open of 51 and yesterday was 50. Some 50s still out there and I'll be betting it today.
2. NE @ Phi - Over 44.5
This line also dropped from the open of 46, however since I like the over, I will wait a day or so to see if it keeps dropping before placing my bet.
Enjoy Week 11.