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  • Tony Bonk

Week 11, 3 ATS and A LOT of Totals

Last week was bad... A big ML bet on the Eagles plus having them is a high-stakes survivor. Plus going 1-4 on contest picks. Not thrilled, which is why this post is relatively short, but the model still runs, small sample sizes have lots of variance, and we fight on!


ATS

Three for wagers this week after crossing off three others (Dal, Ari, and NYJ).


Dal kind of feels like a good pick, but they still have a mix of QBs in the data and a poor run D. With Min playing well lately (especially against teams with bad run Ds), I am not sure their early season reflect their current play, and thus this is a stay away.


Ari is obvious because if was on Thursday.


NYJ crossed off as well, mostly due to Darnold and Flaco coming in and out of the data, and the line is rising to 10 (good if we want to wager them, bad for contest pick). I am not sure that NYJ still give same effort as you would expect them early in the season. And that is enough for me to stay away, even if LAC are blowing every lead they have lately.


Finally, it feels like everyone is on Mia, so that is not great, but I'm going with math on this one.


  1. Mia -3.5 (-3.5, -105, Bet Online)

  2. Cin +1.5 (+1, -104, Bet Online)

  3. NE -1.5 (-2, -110, Bet Online)

And the remaining two for contests, ignoring Det for all their injuries.


4. Atl -4.5

5. Ten +6.5



Week 11, 2020 - ATS Model Results



Totals

Last week, it was easier to cross off a lot of totals, however this week does not seem so easy. I'm only crossing off the Thursday game and tracking the rest. Hopefully, it will help any leans or wagers you may have. (overs in bold to stand out)


  1. LAR @ Tam - U48.5

  2. Atl @ NO - U52

  3. Ten @ Bal - O49.5

  4. NE @ Hou - U49

  5. GB @ Ind - U51

  6. Dal @ Min - O47.5

  7. Pit @ Jac - U46

  8. Cin @ Was - U47

  9. NYJ @ LAC - O46


Week 11, 2020 - Total Model Results


Straight-Up

Pit is highest on our straight-up model, but be aware of their looming game with Bal on Thursday. Mia is up next.


I would cross off NO with the QB changes if I was in survivor, and if you have other options.


Week 11, 2020 - Straight-Up Model Results


Enjoy week 11.


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