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  • Tony Bonk

Week 10, Going "Away"

Last week was our worst of the year, going 2-2 ATS and 0-4 on Totals. However, for the season, we are still over 60% (my goal).

Week 10 brings five away team picks but before the predictions, here is the recap for the season:


Results through Week 9, 2019

For only filtered game (games worthy of a bet and ones I put my own money on), here's the breakdown for the season week-by-week.


Bet Tracking, 2019

And splits for ATS and Totals:


ATS and Total Tracking, 2019

Going into week 10, there are 11 picks, with one being a Total on Thursday's game, using Bookmaker.eu lines as of Thursday morning.


All five of the ATS games are away teams, a reoccurring trend in the model, is interesting, especially after a week where home teams dominated straight up and ATS.


Let's #GetSome.


ATS

All five of the of these are 'Filtered', meaning worthy of a bet and that I put my own money on it.


1. Ari +4.5 (Ari @ Tam -4.5) - Top ATS Pick

2. NYG -2.5 (NYG @ NYJ +2.5)

3. Buf +3 (Buf @ Cle -3)

4. Atl +13 (Atl @ NO -13)

5. Min +3 (Min @ Dal -3)


ATS Predictions, Week 10, 2019

Note, Baltimore is right on the nose of being 'Filtered', actually being slight below and rounding on the 5th place gets it to 0.4500. Since the model is team-stat based and not injuries or situational, I am comfortable avoiding the potential let-down game for Baltimore after their win over NE. Trusting the model the way it was built and tested.


Totals

1. LAC @ Oak - Under 49 - Top Total Pick of the Week, Thursday night

2. Mia @ Ind - Over 44

3. NYG @ NYJ - Over 43.5

4. Buf @ Cle - Under 40

5. Det @ Chi - Over 41.5

6. Atl @ NO - Over 51


Total Predictions, Week 10, 2019

Just as the model trends towards more away teams it also trends towards Unders more than Overs. It is nice to see a week with more Overs, simply because they are more enjoyable to watch and you always have a chance.


Happy Football.

 

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