Week 10, Going "Away"
Last week was our worst of the year, going 2-2 ATS and 0-4 on Totals. However, for the season, we are still over 60% (my goal).
Week 10 brings five away team picks but before the predictions, here is the recap for the season:
For only filtered game (games worthy of a bet and ones I put my own money on), here's the breakdown for the season week-by-week.
And splits for ATS and Totals:
Going into week 10, there are 11 picks, with one being a Total on Thursday's game, using Bookmaker.eu lines as of Thursday morning.
All five of the ATS games are away teams, a reoccurring trend in the model, is interesting, especially after a week where home teams dominated straight up and ATS.
All five of the of these are 'Filtered', meaning worthy of a bet and that I put my own money on it.
1. Ari +4.5 (Ari @ Tam -4.5) - Top ATS Pick
2. NYG -2.5 (NYG @ NYJ +2.5)
3. Buf +3 (Buf @ Cle -3)
4. Atl +13 (Atl @ NO -13)
5. Min +3 (Min @ Dal -3)
Note, Baltimore is right on the nose of being 'Filtered', actually being slight below and rounding on the 5th place gets it to 0.4500. Since the model is team-stat based and not injuries or situational, I am comfortable avoiding the potential let-down game for Baltimore after their win over NE. Trusting the model the way it was built and tested.
1. LAC @ Oak - Under 49 - Top Total Pick of the Week, Thursday night
2. Mia @ Ind - Over 44
3. NYG @ NYJ - Over 43.5
4. Buf @ Cle - Under 40
5. Det @ Chi - Over 41.5
6. Atl @ NO - Over 51
Just as the model trends towards more away teams it also trends towards Unders more than Overs. It is nice to see a week with more Overs, simply because they are more enjoyable to watch and you always have a chance.