Search
  • Tony Bonk

Week 10 - 3 ATS


Last week went 1-1 on ATS wagers, 3-2 in contests, and 4-1-1 in Totals. Here is the season tracking and then let's dive into Week 10 picks.

2020 Bet Tracking

2020 - ATS and Total Trend

ATS

A couple games to cross off and one that is going WITH 90% of bets... ugh.


Wagers

  1. Buf +2.5 (+2.5, -103, Bookmaker)

  2. LAC +1.5 (+1.5, -110, My Bookie)

  3. Sea +1.5 (+2, -104, Bet Online)

And to close out Top 5


4. Bal -7

5. Jac +13.5


I'm crossing off Min because of the big line swing from Min +1.5 to 2.5 (depending who you listen to you on openers) to Min -2.5 and -3 in varying places now. I think Min looked great against GB and Det in recent weeks (awful run defense from both those teams). I gave up that value in the LAR @ SF game earlier this year and trying to get smarter.


Also, crossing off Hou @ Cle because of Cle's returning injuries, most notably Chubb and Teller (the highest rated G on PFF). In the three games Teller missed, Cle had their lowest rushing totals of the year (albeit it coincided with Chubb's injury as well. Regardless, I think Cle's stats are a little skewed versus what we will see on Sunday.


Week 10, 2020 - ATS Model Results

Totals

Three total bets this week, and they are all unders... iiieeessshhhh.

  1. SF @ NO - U50

  2. Buf @ Ari - U56

  3. Bal @ NE - U43.5

Buf@ Ari has moved up numerous points after a 52 opener. Hard to trust the math here, handicapping wise, this has over written all OVER it! But there is a reason it is not rising into the 60s. Someone is holding it to where it sits now.


Week 10, 2020 - Totals Model Result

Straight-Up

Phi is the TOP choice of the week. I am a bit surprised by that, with NO, Pit, and a 13.5 point favorite GB in the mix. I'm trusting the math, and Phi are getting some injured players back. I'll likely take a ML position on them to back my straight-up model (FYI - Bet Online was best I saw at -197, and I'm on it! Non-official, side pick).


Week 10, 2020 - Straight-Up Model Results


6 views
 

©2020 by BonkAgainstTheSpread.com

This site does not endorse, recommend, or support illegal betting or gambling under any circumstances. All information on this site is for entertainment purposes only and is not intended to be used in any direct or indirect violation of local, state, federal or international law(s).

Please be smart, abide by the laws of your area. Don't do illegal things.