Week 10 - 3 ATS
Last week went 1-1 on ATS wagers, 3-2 in contests, and 4-1-1 in Totals. Here is the season tracking and then let's dive into Week 10 picks.
A couple games to cross off and one that is going WITH 90% of bets... ugh.
Buf +2.5 (+2.5, -103, Bookmaker)
LAC +1.5 (+1.5, -110, My Bookie)
Sea +1.5 (+2, -104, Bet Online)
And to close out Top 5
4. Bal -7
5. Jac +13.5
I'm crossing off Min because of the big line swing from Min +1.5 to 2.5 (depending who you listen to you on openers) to Min -2.5 and -3 in varying places now. I think Min looked great against GB and Det in recent weeks (awful run defense from both those teams). I gave up that value in the LAR @ SF game earlier this year and trying to get smarter.
Also, crossing off Hou @ Cle because of Cle's returning injuries, most notably Chubb and Teller (the highest rated G on PFF). In the three games Teller missed, Cle had their lowest rushing totals of the year (albeit it coincided with Chubb's injury as well. Regardless, I think Cle's stats are a little skewed versus what we will see on Sunday.
Three total bets this week, and they are all unders... iiieeessshhhh.
SF @ NO - U50
Buf @ Ari - U56
Bal @ NE - U43.5
Buf@ Ari has moved up numerous points after a 52 opener. Hard to trust the math here, handicapping wise, this has over written all OVER it! But there is a reason it is not rising into the 60s. Someone is holding it to where it sits now.
Phi is the TOP choice of the week. I am a bit surprised by that, with NO, Pit, and a 13.5 point favorite GB in the mix. I'm trusting the math, and Phi are getting some injured players back. I'll likely take a ML position on them to back my straight-up model (FYI - Bet Online was best I saw at -197, and I'm on it! Non-official, side pick).