• Tony Bonk

The Magnificent Bowl

Let's talk what our model likes first. Nothing!

Here are the predictions for ATS and Total:

#GetSome #NFLPicks

Super Bowl Prediction, 2019-2020 Season

ATS is leaning SF, but 0.49 is hardly a lean.

On Totals, one model (ERR) does have a strong lean to under but not past our "filtered" limits to consider wagering. While the other model (TRS) is only a nudge to over.

Fun Bets

I think this will be a great game. No serious wagers for me but I am leaning SF and so hard to see it going under (even as the Total went from 51 to 54).

For fun, I have a small wager on a 6-point teaser, here are the numbers I got:

SF +7, Over 48.5

Hard to grab Over 48.5 after last week's key numbers post where 41, 40, and 47 were most frequent, but these offenses are not like most.

Also, there are two other wagers I like, for no other reason then for fun as my family and I watch the game:

1. Demi Lovato Omit a Word From National Anthem? - Yes +870 (now dow to +600s)
2. NFL Super Bowl LIV - Will Alex Rodriguez be Shown During Halftime Show? - Yes +194

Catch up Quick Knowledge

For anyone wanting to catch up on the game today and tomorrow before kick-off, and to sound smart while watching it after not studying all week, check out these two podcasts:

1. The GM Shuffle

(Link) Lombardi and Adnan did five podcasts this week and all are enjoyable and packed with knowledge. Also, this is my favorite football podcast and many of the key metrics Lombardi discusses throughout the season are the foundation for how I built my model (and I think a big reason why it is successful).

2. The Lefkoe Show (Jan. 30 - Warren Sharp's Ultra Super Bowl Betting Preview)

(Link) Only this year did I start listening to Lefkoe but have admired and followed his weekly guest, Warren Sharp), for a while now. Warren's breakdown of matchups, situations, gamelans, and much more is incredible. Great stuff.

Enjoy the game and thank you for being around this season.


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