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  • Tony Bonk

The Best Part & Week 1 Picks

Updated: Sep 9, 2019

The best part is being in the data and creating something with it. Whether it's reliability engineering, manufacturing data, or team stats, the spreadsheet and coding feels like home. Last year, I wrote more than I explored the data, and it was not as fun as I imagined. As the year went on, I wanted to build my own machine learning model to predict games. As I researched existing models, I found no books focused on machine learning with NFL data (or at least nothing shared publicly in various Google searches), I pushed myself to write that book and build the model as a byproduct.


Well... that goal failed. And I could not be happier! Instead of writing, I spent the time learning how to web scrape data, transform it and create a model, and finally how to predict a probability of covering each week.


Throwing out the coin-flip record from last year that was based on qualitative research (i.e. my own opinion), this we year we start fresh with a qualitative model for ATS and Totals.


This blog will help me track and communicate those picks.



#GetSome!



ATS - Top 5 (Lifetime: 0-0-0, Season: 0-0-0)

If I have to chose 5, like in the Super Contest, these are it


1. SF PK (SF @ Tam Pick)


2. Ten +5 (Ten @ Cle -5)


3. LAR -2.5 (LAR @ Car +2.5)


4. Buf +3 (Buf @ NYJ -3)


5. Hou +7 (Hou @ NO -7)



ATS - Filtered (Lifetime: 0-0-0, Season: 0-0-0)

The ones the model say are worthy of a bet


1. SF PK (SF @ Tam Pick)


2. Ten +5 (Ten @ Cle -5)


3. LAR -2.5 (LAR @ Car +2.5)



ATS - Top 1 (Lifetime: 0-0-0, Season: 0-0-0)

Top pick of the week


1. SF PK (SF @ Tam Pick)



Totals - Filtered (Lifetime: 0-0-0, Season: 0-0-0)

The ones the model say are worthy of a bet


1. Cin @ Sea - Over 44


2. Was @ Phi - Over 46


3. Ten @ Cle - Under 45.5


4. LAR @ Car - Under 50.5


5. Den @ Oak - Under 42 (*added on Monday 9/9/2019 after retuning model for adjusted lines)



Totals - Top 1 (Lifetime: 0-0-0, Season: 0-0-0)

Top pick of the week


1. Cin @ Sea - Over 44


 

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