Regular Season Review & Two Wilds
The regular season is over, how'd we do?
Goal - Hit 60% on all games
Result - Failure, buuuuut... (with a close 57.3% that I consider a success).
Going over 60% on ATS is a HUGE SUCCESS.
My Top 5 would have had 53.5 points, good for:
Tied for 20th in the Super Contest ($46k)
Tied for 15th in Circa (only top 10 cash)
Tied for 1st in Super Contest Gold (lost on tie breaker of more wins, ugh, heartbreaker! $0, winner take all)
17-3 would have tied Circa first quarterly winner ($71,875, splitting the $143,750 award)
Easy to say when I did not sign up.. may be next year I put my money were my mouth is...
Back to the regular season review and diving into the specifics we can see how much better ATS was than Totals.
All filtered games were 78-61-7 (56.1%, +9.9 Units)
Going into week-to-week trends, early season was great and then a back-and-forth second half of the year.
Go here to see full ATS and Total breakdown on a week-to-week layout (fyi: it works better on desktop rather than mobile).
Looking into ATS and Totals, as noted earlier, ATS was great (64.3% and +12.7 Units) averaging +0.5 units per game bet. However, Totals were not great, essentially matching a coin flip (50.6%, -2.8 Units).
Diving in deeper, shown above is only games we bet ("filtered"), but I also add picks to the site for contests ("Top 5"). If we include those, with everything, we are at +15.5 Units.
Everything Given on Site
(57.7%, +15.5 Units)
Once again, excluding Totals, the ATS for betting and contests gets even better.
Top 5 (ATS Filtered + Extra Games for Contests)
(64.2%, +18.3 Units)
Great season. I will keep it going into the playoffs, although with less games there will likely be less filtered games per week.
One game to bet this weekend for ATS.
1. NO - 7.5 (Min @ NO -7.5)
Each of the other games are in the 'too close to bet' range.
Only one game this week on the Total.
1. Buf @ Hou - Under 44
Note that Min @ NO is a lean to the under (with one model selecting it) but I will not be betting it after going with the two-model approach for totals.
A special edition for this week, the Straight Up model!
The SU model is not a deeply tested as the ATS or Total models, and is HEAVILY influenced by the spread (approximately 66% of SU winners are favored).
Biggest takeaway from this is that Philly is nearly expected to win as much as New England.
The Prediction column below tells you whether the model likes the away or home team (closer to 0 then the more it likes away team; closer to 1 the more it likes the home team). To state it another way, teams (Phi, NE) with these stats (model input) playing teams (Sea, Ten) with their stats, are more likely to win than lose.
Enjoy Wild Card Weekend.