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  • Tony Bonk

Regular Season Review & Two Wilds

The regular season is over, how'd we do?

Goal - Hit 60% on all games

Result - Failure, buuuuut... (with a close 57.3% that I consider a success).


Going over 60% on ATS is a HUGE SUCCESS.

For example, my contest (Top 5) record would have had significant success this year in the Vegas contests (Westgate Super Contest and Circa Sports Million).


My Top 5 would have had 53.5 points, good for:

  • Tied for 20th in the Super Contest ($46k)

  • Tied for 15th in Circa (only top 10 cash)

  • Tied for 1st in Super Contest Gold (lost on tie breaker of more wins, ugh, heartbreaker! $0, winner take all)

  • 17-3 would have tied Circa first quarterly winner ($71,875, splitting the $143,750 award)

Easy to say when I did not sign up.. may be next year I put my money were my mouth is...



Back to the regular season review and diving into the specifics we can see how much better ATS was than Totals.


All filtered games were 78-61-7 (56.1%, +9.9 Units)
Results through Week 17, 2019

Going into week-to-week trends, early season was great and then a back-and-forth second half of the year.


Go here to see full ATS and Total breakdown on a week-to-week layout (fyi: it works better on desktop rather than mobile).


Bet Tracking 2019, Filtered

Looking into ATS and Totals, as noted earlier, ATS was great (64.3% and +12.7 Units) averaging +0.5 units per game bet. However, Totals were not great, essentially matching a coin flip (50.6%, -2.8 Units).


Bet Tracking 2019, ATS and Totals, Filtered

Diving in deeper, shown above is only games we bet ("filtered"), but I also add picks to the site for contests ("Top 5"). If we include those, with everything, we are at +15.5 Units.


Everything Given on Site

(57.7%, +15.5 Units)
Bet Tracking 2019, Everything Given on Site

Once again, excluding Totals, the ATS for betting and contests gets even better.


Top 5 (ATS Filtered + Extra Games for Contests)

(64.2%, +18.3 Units)
Bet Tracking 2019, ATS Top 5

Great season. I will keep it going into the playoffs, although with less games there will likely be less filtered games per week.


#GetSome #NFLPicks


ATS

One game to bet this weekend for ATS.


1. NO - 7.5 (Min @ NO -7.5)


Each of the other games are in the 'too close to bet' range.


ATS Predictions, Wild Card Weekend, 2019

Total

Only one game this week on the Total.


1. Buf @ Hou - Under 44


Note that Min @ NO is a lean to the under (with one model selecting it) but I will not be betting it after going with the two-model approach for totals.


Total Predictions, Wild Card Weekend, 2019


Straight Up

A special edition for this week, the Straight Up model!


The SU model is not a deeply tested as the ATS or Total models, and is HEAVILY influenced by the spread (approximately 66% of SU winners are favored).


Biggest takeaway from this is that Philly is nearly expected to win as much as New England.

The Prediction column below tells you whether the model likes the away or home team (closer to 0 then the more it likes away team; closer to 1 the more it likes the home team). To state it another way, teams (Phi, NE) with these stats (model input) playing teams (Sea, Ten) with their stats, are more likely to win than lose.



SU Predictions, Wild Card Weekend, 2019


Enjoy Wild Card Weekend.

 

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