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  • Tony Bonk

Lean and Mean in Week 15

Our model testing in 2018 showed better results as the year went on. For example, it was hovering above breakeven in the 52-54% range the first half of the test data, then jumped to over 55% with the strength of the second half. Granted that test was a small sample size, however this year has been the opposite, where three great weeks in the first seven has kept us lifted the entire year as we float in the 50-54% range and now have only eight profitable of fourteen weeks. We are still in the black (+7.2 Units) on the year and have three weeks left to improve.

Through Week 14, we are 64-51-5 (55.7%, 7.2 Units). With ATS at 27-17-2 (61.4%, 7.5 Units) and Totals at 37-34-3 (52.1%, -0.4 Units).
Bet Tracking, 2019 (Filtered)
Results through Week 14, 2019

To see full trend and split on ATS and Total, go here (better on computer or tablet than on phone).



Enough with the past, on to the future and our Week 15 picks.

#GetSome #NFLPicks



ATS

All of these five below are filtered, matching Top-5 (Contest Picks) and our bettable games ("Filtered").


1. Hou +3 (Hou @ Ten -3) - Top ATS Pick of the Week

2. Tam -3.5 (Tam @ Det +3.5)

3. Min -2.5 (Min @ LAC +2.5)

4. Jac +6 (Jac @ Oak -6)

5. Sea -6 (Sea @ Car +6)



Totals

As mentioned in previous posts, after reevaluating our total model, we are using a mix of two and selecting based on the combination (and logic - in the event a major injury or coaching change occurred). Below is both models with the bettable games ("Filtered") highlighted.


1. Tam @ Det - Under 47 - Top Total Pick of the Week

- Dear Lord... another Tampa under pick on a team that is 10-3 to the Over and playing a Detroit team with an awful defense.

2. Jac @ Oak - Under 45.5

3. Hou @ Ten - Under 51

4. Sea @ Car - Under 48



Happy Week 15.


 

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