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  • Tony Bonk

Key Numbers & Home Field

The answer to last week's trivia question?

What are the top three key numbers since the XP was moved back (2015), in order, for ATS and Totals?

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Answer (in order of most frequent)

ATS: 3, 7, 6
Total: 41, 40, 47

ATS

The differential of 3 is by far the most occurring. The home team winning by 3 occurs nearly 9% of the time while the away by 3 was 5.5% (making the absolute value of 3 occurring in nearly every 1 of 6 games).


7 and then 6 (regardless of +/- or absolute) are next with 10 and 14 next. See below for breakdown based on Home Team Scored Differential (+ means home team won by X amount). Notice how the +/-3, 7, and 6 mirror each other.


Link to Dashboards: here

Go here to see full ATS and Total breakdown in an interactive dashboard (FYI: it works better on desktop rather than mobile).


ATS Histogram by Home Team Differential (3 = Home won by 3)

The coloring above is based on pre-game home team spread, and the columns are on final score difference.


Looking at the yearly distribution of home score differential (+ means the home team won by X amount, +1.9 = Home Teams won on average by 1.9 points).


Yearly Distribution of Home Team Final Score Differential

The average since 2015 is Home Team by 1.9, but worth noting this past season that the average score is 0. Thus home teams, on average, did NOT outscore away teams. Said another way, in 2019, there was on average NO home field advantage.

In 2019, there was, on average, NO home field advantage.

Even if you remove some of the outlier games (such as early season home games for the Dolphins, losing by 40+ to Bat and NE, and the Bengals, losing by 30+ to SF) the average shifts closer to 1 but still well below each of the past seasons.


This could be a result of scheduling quirks or timing, but worth monitoring through next season.


Total

Key Numbers for ATS steady through the years, however for Totals, it shifts slightly each year. From 2015-2019, the most frequent number was, 43, 47, 40, 51, and 40 in each given year. Combining all years since the XP was moved back (2015) we come to 41, 40 , and 47 as the three most frequently occurring final scores.


Combining each year, there is no number that shines as strongly as 3 does for ATS, and no number appears in more than 4% of games.


My takeaway from this analysis is for game-to-game decisions when betting totals. For example, 41 and 40 are the top two most frequent. If you are interested in an Under, a move from 41 to 41.5 is more significant that 41.5 to 42 (although that is still nice, 42 occurs nearly half as much as 41, so pending juice on the bet may not be worth it).


Go here to see full ATS and Total breakdown in an interactive dashboard (FYI: it works better on desktop rather than mobile).

Totals Histogram by Total Points Scored (per game)

The coloring above is based on pre-game total, and the columns are on final score total.



The yearly distribution of total points scored per game, 2017 was the lowest average score of the past 5 years followed by 2018, which had the highest! The Rams and Chiefs 2018 years seem to stick out in my mind for 2018. Defenses bounced back in 2019, falling in between `17 and `18.


Yearly Distribution of Total Points Scored

Enjoy the bye week.


#GetSome #NFL

 

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