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  • Tony Bonk

75%, 85%, and on the Right Track

Updated: Oct 16, 2019

The "Filtered" picks are the ones I consider worthy of a bet, however I post the Top 5 for contest purposes, such as the Westgate Super Contest or Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest (in its first year). Sometimes the Top 5 are not filtered but I still keep track of Top 5, Filtered, and everything posted on the site (thus including Top 5 games in weeks where not all five meet the filtered requirement).


After four weeks, everything posted on the site this season is hitting at 75%. See table below for full tracking (where I highlight the filtered records) and a few things to note,

- 85%, 17-3 for Top 5 would of tied the Circa quarterly and split the $143,750k prize for best record in September (that would have been nice...BUT TELLS ME I AM ON THE RIGHT TRACK!)

- Top 1 ATS picks have gone 4-0

- Filtered Totals were at 8-7-1 before week 4's nine selections that finished 8-1

- Top 1 Totals are only 2-2

Results through Week 4, 2019

ATS

1. Cle +4 (Cle @ SF -4) - Top ATS Pick, Filtered

2. Tam +3.5 (Tam @ NO -3.5) - Filtered

3. NYJ +13.5 (NYJ @ Phi -13.5) - Filtered

4. NE -15.5 (NE @ Was +15.5

5. Ten -3 (Buf @ Ten -3)


There are two games with QB injury concerns, one that is filtered and another that is a non-filtered Top 5 ATS. However, both games we are still going to take.


First, will Darnold play? If he does, the 13.5 and half will likely drop down, so I am comfortable trusting the model as if Falk is going to play. Also, from the situational side, something the model does not include, Phi had a big GB game and then goes to Min and Dal in the following two weeks. Their NYJ game is a perfect sandwich game to overlook.


The other injury is Josh Allen and we are the opposite side, with Ten -3. Ten has been a Jekyll and Hyde team who did well last week, however if Allen plays I think 3 is appropriate, whereas if Barkley plays, I'd expect the number to increase a bit. So I am happy with -3.


Week 5, 2019 - ATS Predictions

Totals

1. Cle @ SF - Under 46.5 - Top Total

2. Min @ NYG - Under 44

3. Chi @ Oak - Under 40.5 (London game, 1pm EST)

4. Jac @ Car - Over 41

5. Atl @ Hou - Over 48.5

6. Tam @ NO - Over 47


The Cle @ SF game is top ATS and Total of the week. The second week in a row the top game was both ATS and Total top pick (last week was LAC @ Mia; LAC and the under was the prediction and they both hit). Leading to want to rerun my predictions and include parlay likelihood and expected payout. That analysis will be for another day.


If you are looking into games that I do not consider "filtered", the prediction column tells you whether Over or Under - where a lower prediction means under and higher means over.

Week 5, 2019 - Total Predictions

Enjoy week 5.


 

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