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  • Tony Bonk

5 for 5 - Week 7, 2018

Ari was our early pick and they got spanked 45-10, throwing two pick-6s in the first quarter and firing their Offensive Coordinator the next morning. Starting off 0-1, bring it on (still think the Broncos are bad).


Be warned, there are some stinkers of teams picked in this one, including Buf and NYG...


Using the Westgate Super Contest lines:


Summary

1. Ari +1.5 (Den) - Loss (45-10 Den)

2. Buf +7.5 (@ Ind)

3. Min -3 (@ NYJ)

4. SF +9.5 (LAR)

5. NYG +5.5 (@ Atl)


Skipping Ari (it will be in the recap) and diving right in:


2. Buffalo Bills +7.5 (@ Ind)

1 - Let's get this terrible aspect out of the way: Derek Anderson is playing for Buffalo. A guy who recently was retired and now has a week to learn the playbook. I think the team responds, a sort of Ewing Theory kind of thing.

2 - Buffalo weirdly hangs around and puts up a fight. They can steal games if the other team is not fully prepared, like how Buf got their two wins: Min and Ten (although Ten may have bigger problems, not having scored a TD in two weeks)

3 - Ind is 1-5, I'm not sure any 1-5 team should be giving 7.5

4 - Buffalo is deadliest in DVOA, driven by the terrible offense (32nd overall and in offense), but they do have the 3rd rated defense, if their offense can step up (a big ask...) then they can keep it within 7.5

5 - Fade the public! Who in their right mind would take Buffalo? Well the 7.5 spread has moved (only slightly) down to 7, with 75% of bets (according to sportsbook.ag) on Ind

Counterpoint - (not including that it's Buffalo... Ind was has played 4 of the past 5 games on the road, some of those were close games and surely helped lead to their 1-5 record)


3. Min -3 (@ NYJ)

1 - NYJ have been playing well, but their last two opponents had terrible situations coming in, over inflating those last two wins

2 - NYJ beat up on Den (who is bad on the road) but it was right after Den played KC on MNF and then went on the road to NYJ

3 - NYJ then took down Ind, but Ind was playing their 4th road game of the past 5 weeks

4 - Min is ranked 20th in defensive DVOA, I don't think that holds up

5 - If Min is playing better than they were earlier in the year, then they will be the best team that the NYJ have played (Mia and Jac are the best in DVOA, ranking 6th and 15th; where Min is currently 21, although the premise here is that Min is playing better)


4. SF +9.5 (LAR)

1 - LAR are playing their 3rd straight road game

2 - I think this game will be a shootout, as both defenses in this game are not playing well lately, LAR are 17th (average) in defensive DVOA and SF 25th

3 - Last year, this game in SF was 41-39 LAR's win, and SF won when it was in LA (although that was week 17 and SF rested everyone, so that doesn't count)

4 - LAR have lost their last two ATS on this road trip (@ Sea and @ Den)

5 - 9.5 points in division road game with an underperforming defense is a lot of points


5. NYG +5.5 (@ Atl)

1 - Atl's D is bad and I don't think they should be giving up 5.5 to most teams

2 - NYG have had a mini-bye, playing the Thursday game before, and getting spanked by Phi (so I think they'll be a bounce back this week)

3 - These teams have the 31st (Atl) and 27th (NYG) rated defenses, whoever gets the lead will not be able to hold it

4 - Building the last point, the back door for NYG to cover (if Atl gets the lead) will be wide open; Tam was 4 yards away from finishing a trick play that would have beat Atl last week

5 - NYG have destroyed me every time I have taken them in the past, we have to win one of these times.... right...?

Counterpoint - NYG have a bad O-Line, and as Lombardi says "bad lines don't travel"


 

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