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5 for 5 - Week 5, 2018

Week 5's 5 picks with 5 reasons for each, using the Westgate Super Contest lines:


Wee 5 - Super Contest Lines

Summary

1. Jac +3 (@ KC)

2. Pit -3 (Atl)

3. GB -1 (@ Det)

4. LAR -7 (@ Sea)

5. Hou -3 (Dal)


5 for 5

Ugh, four of five are favorites, not a fan of that...


1. Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (@ KC)

1 - Jac D is the best KC has faced so far, by far, with Jac ranked 2nd in defensive DVOA after four weeks and Pit ranking the highest in Def D (19th) of all KC opponents (LAC, Pit, SF, Den); admittedly some of the low ranking is due to playing KC's excellent offense, but certainly none of them are top 10

2 - Potential look ahead for KC as well as sandwich game situation, with road divisional game (@Den) last week on MNF and hosting NE next week

3 - Short week for KC after playing MNF @ Den

4 - Jac were in similar situation last year, playing at Pit twice as underdogs versus a high-powered offense, and were able to win outright in both

5 - Bortles has not been terrible. Yes, I know this sounds crazy, and he will have to keep pace the 2nd rated offense by DVOA, but he is currently 13th by FootballOutsiders.com DYAR metric, along with the likes of Stafford, Rodgers, and Brady. Those three each have some issue to explain why they are out of top 10 (Stafford - new coach trying to run more, Rodgers - injury, Brady - NE slow start and Edelman out) but the key point is: Bortles is considered terrible and if Jac gets average play from him that is a huge plus


2. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 (Atl)

1 - Atlanta's injury report on the defensive side

2 - Pittsburgh has not lost 4 home games in a row under Mike Tomlin per Mike Lombardi on GM Street

3 - Dome team on the road

4 - Niether team has a great D, especially with Atl's injuries, but Pit is 19th in DVOA while Atl is 30th (Note, both have played shootouts against very offenses and lost, with Pit to KC and Atl to NO)

5 - Pit may be able to run the ball and keep it away from Ryan: Atl's defensive problems and their 30th DVOA rank includes being 27th against the pass and 30th against the run


3. Green Bay Packers -1 (@ Det)

1 - GB outranks Det in by Overall DVOA (10th versus 27th)...

2 - and in Offensive DVOA (14th versus 21st)...

3 - and in Defensive DVOA (13th to 27th)

4 - Det beat GB both times last year, but Rodgers did not play in either

5 - Det's has key injuries on both lines: Lang is out for their O-line and Ansah on their D-line; Ansah out is a big one, as he has been key to Det's pass rush in recent years

Counterpoint: The line has shifted from Det +1 to -1 since Wednesday, GB was handled by Was on the road in Week 2, and screw the pack, GO LIONS!


4. Los Angles Rams -7 (@ Sea)

1 - Last year these teams split, with the road team winning each, however Sea won early in the year (16-10 Sea win @ LAR) in week 5 only 5 games into McVay being in LA, in the rematch in week 15, LAR won 42-7

2 - Earl Thomas out for Sea

3 - LAR keep their foot on the gas pedal, covering 4-0 ATS so far (let's ride the hot streak!)

4 - In games where Sea played a good pass rush (@ Den week 1, @ Chi week 2), they gave up 6 sacks in each game

5 - LAR are 1st in yards per play (7.4) while Sea in 30th (4.9) per TeamRankings.com

Counterpoint - laying 7 on the road... ugh


5. Houston Texans -3 (Dal)

1 - Hou outranking Dal in Overall DVOA 13th to 24th

2 - Hou also outranks Dal in Offensive, Defensive, and Special Teams DVOA (although Off and Def are closer, only ST is a wider gap: 3rd versus 15th)

3 - It took a last second FG for Dal to beat Det last week

4 - Hou's first prime time game this year and it's at home

5 - Sean Lee (Dal's best defensive player) is out again this week

And a sixth... Dal is 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road straight up, while 1-1 at home and 0-2 on the road ATS

And a seventh... Hou has those better numbers while playing 3 of 4 on the road to open the season

Counterpoint- In Hou's one home game they got beat by NYG, who are not good...


 

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