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5 for 5 - W9 Recap

We ended up at 2-3, as we struggle to get over the hump (21-22-2 on the year). Right now we are no different than a monkey flipped a coin (insert sad face), so let's see what we can learn from those picks.


Note: there good game recaps posted to ProFootballFocus.com every week, here is week 9.


Summary

1. Tam +6 (@ Car) - Loss (42-28 Car)

2. Den -1 (Hou) - Loss (19-17 Hou)

3. Sea -2 (LAC) - Loss (25-17 LAC)

4. NO -1.5 (LAR) - Win (45-35 NO)

5. Ten +6.5 (@ Dal) - Win (28-14 Ten)


1. Tam +6 (@ Car) - Loss (42-28 Car)

The reason behind this pick was that it would be high-scoring and Tam would be able to hang with Car. Tam's D is much worse but they have an explosive offense to go against Car's 17th (average) ranked D.


Car scored early and often but Tam could not keep up. Mike Evans was held to 1 catch and 16 yards on 10 targets! Fitzpatrick was under pressure most of the game As Car jumped to an 35-7 lead, Tam eventually came back to within 7 but it was too little too late as Car scored one more time to finish 42-28.


The first half possessions sum it up, as Car punted and then scored 5 straight TDs, while Tam had 7 possessions and although it included 2 TDs, it also had 3 punts, an interception, and turnover on downs. The drives were not TDs, averaged 3.6 plays, giving the ball back quickly to a hot offense and tired D.


2. Den -1 (Hou) - Loss (19-17 Hou)

I thought Hou's offense line troubles would sink them, and they were sacked 4 times, but Watson played well, finishing with a 125.9 rating and 8.9 yards per attempt. Even if Den won on the late FG, we would have had a push, so Hou certainly played Den better than expected.


This game was tight, which I am taking away as Hou being the better team and Den's home field advantage keeping them even. In an even game, the turnovers matter more, and Booker's early fumble leading to a Hou 3-play 22 yard TD drive turned out to be the difference. Not to be forgotten though is the poor decision by Den to not get closer for the game winning FG. Den could be falling apart from the inside out if the coach losses the locker room.


3. Sea -2 (LAC) - Loss (25-17 LAC)

Sea's D was not able to keep LAC in check, and it's a good win for LAC as I harped on them only beating poor opponents. They traded TDs early with the first four possessions being TD (Sea), TD (LAC), Punt (Sea), TD (LAC). As it leveled out from there, a 4th quarter pick-6 from Wilson proved the ultimate difference.


LAC's offense was consistent and good, as Gordon rushed for over a 100 and Allen had over 100 receiving. The explosive plays and the pick-6 were the difference, as traditional stats were close (total yards, penalties). Sea even had the edge in 1st downs (25-17), but the LAC offensive shows in how they only had 24+ minutes time of possession yet won the game. Clearly the pick-6 being the only TO leading directly to 6 points (note: LAC missed 2 XPs this game plus a failed 2-point) helped.


Finally to cap it off, LAC effficiency is captured in yards per play, as LAC had 7.8 but Sea only 6.1.


4. NO -1.5 (LAR) - Win (45-35 NO)

Hey! Finally a win we can talk about! This pick was primarily around NO's O-Line, as they have been playing great, and included NO's home field advantage.


Brees and Thomas took over their side of the ball, connecting for 211 yards and a TD from 15 targets and 12 catches. Kamara was a TD monster again and NO put up 35 in the first half.


However, NO defense, especially on Gurley, may have been the bigger difference. They held Gurley to 3.6 yards per rush (his average is 4.8 after that game) and only 6 catches for 11 yards.


5. Ten +6.5 (@ Dal) - Win (28-14 Ten)

The pick reasoning in this game was that the line was too big for Dal as favorites and how the coaching on both sides seemed to be going in different directions.


Mariota is seemingly getting back to health after his elbow injury earlier in the year and he was able to stay upright most of the game. Ten's O-Line played well and on the other side of the ball, Dal's offense could not get anything going with their poor O-Line play. Ten controlled the game with over 34 minutes time of possession and gradually pulled away. Dal is more and more becoming a team that cannot be trusted.


 

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