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5 for 5 - W5 Recap

Week 5 wasn't great, going 1-3-1. That's 2-7-1 in the past 2 weeks bringing us to an even 0.500 through 5 weeks, with 12-12-1. Need to do better.


Let's review Week 5's picks and why we won / lost.


Summary

1. Jac +3 (@ KC) - Loss (30-14 KC)

2. Pit -3 (Atl) - Win (41-17 Pit)

3. GB -1 (@ Det) - Loss (31-23 Det)

4. LAR -7 (@ Sea) - Loss (33-31 LAR)

5. Hou -3 (Dal) - Push (19-16 Hou)


1. Jac +3 (@ KC) - Loss (30-14 KC)

I thought if Bortles could play average, that would be enough to put up solid points on KC's bad D, while Jac's D would be able to slow down KC enough.


Bortles finished with good fantasy numbers, but they were garbage time. His 4 picks highlights his inaccuracy and how often he was forced to throw (61 attempts), including a dream pick-6 for a defensive lineman.


Jac's D did not slow down KC. There was a glimmer of hope in the first quarter, as after KC scored the first TD they were held to two FGs, but they continued to move the ball and spread the field to exploit any space the D gave them.


KC was good, Jac was not. This highlighted how Jac cannot play from behind, their team is built to get the lead and hold it.



2. Pit -3 (Atl) - Win (41-17 Pit)

This was the one game of the week that went as expected. I did think Atl would put up more than 17, but Pit was able to take advantage of Atl's depleted D. It was close at halftime, 13-10 Pit, but Pit eventually ran away with it at the end of the third / early fourth after three straight TD drives (85 yard 12 plays, 18 yard 3 plays after a blocked punt, 75 yard 5 plays). They eventually tacked on a fumble return for TD to make it look worse.


3. GB -1 (@ Det) - Loss (31-23 Det)

As a Lions fan, it is so enjoyable to be GB. They had Farve and Rodgers for over 20 years now, screw them. Also, I quickly realized not to put much stock in this one because it was a game from hell for GB.


A combination of two things determined this game: GB WR core stinks (it's Adams and then all practice squad) plus Turnovers / Missed FGs. If both of those don't happen, this is back to a coin flip game. Some of that you can give Det credit for (I have certainly seen them get toasted by poor WRs in the past) and they were able to get rushing yards and eat away the clock to limit GBs comeback chances (what a difference from when Caldwell coached this team, it was weird to see Def have good game management). Good job by them. But early turnovers and missed FGs (which are essentially TOs) sunk them.


An early muffed punt (I never saw where GB touched it...) started the day for GB and Det punched it in for a quick TD. Here's GB's first half drive summary:

- Missed FG

- Fumble

- Missed FG

- Missed FG

- Fumble


GB's second half looked much different, but was too little too late:

- TD

- TD

- TD

- Missed FG

- FG (GOT ONE!)


I consider GB slightly better than Det, and being played in Det it is not crazy to see Det win, however the next time these two teams play (in GB) the Packers could put up a lot of points if they are aggressive and limit turnovers.


4. LAR -7 (@ Sea) - Loss (33-31 LAR)

I thought LAR would run away with this. They had a better offense and a better defense, especially with Earl Thomas out. However, their D is not playing well lately (Sea and Min both put up over 30) and Sea's offense was able to stay with them.


I will chalk this up to not taking a road favorite, with a big spread, in a division game. That screams trap game. LAR did have their top two WRs leave with concussions, but regardless their D gave up more than 30.


5. Hou -3 (Dal) - Push (19-16 Hou)

On first look, this was a close game: going to OT and ending in a push ATS. Scoring was 4 FGs and a TD versus 3 FGs and a TD. Looking deeper shows that Hou lost this game more than Dal won it. While both teams had 2 turnovers, Hou had more first downs (25 to 14) and total yards (462 to 292), but the biggest culprit was after Hou's first TD, which was a good 70 yard 8 play drive. After that drive, Hou was inside the Dal 3 times and getting only 6 points out of it. The highlight being a a first and goal from the Dal 9 with 29 seconds left, and getting 0 points!


Dallas almost stole that game and had no place being in it. Hou moved the ball but could never punch it in. Credit to Dal for keeping them out when it mattered, but this is more to Hou's inability to pull ahead and put Dal away.


 

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