5 for 5 - W4 Recap
1-4 with three games going to OT (1-2), not a great week, giving us 11-9 overall record. Let's dive in.
1. Mia +6.5 (@ NE) - Loss (38-7 NE)
2. Ind -1 (Hou) - Loss (37-34 Hou in OT)
3. Phi -4 (@ Ten) - Loss (26-23 Ten in OT)
4. Oak -2.5 (Cle) - Win (45-42 Oak in OT)
5. NYG +3.5 (NO) - Loss (33-18 NO)
Mia +6.5 (@ NE) - Loss (38-7 NE)
NE's September rope-a-dope got me a again. I thought they'd be able to handle Detroit in week 3 (nope) and when it looked like they could not stop Miami from doing the same thing (spreading the ball, playing too fast and side-to-side for their linebackers) NE stepped up and crushed them.
Tannehill played terrible, was pulled for Osweiler in the 4th, and NE's offense went up and down the field on Miami's D. The drive summary says it all for Miami's offense in the first half: 6 drives, 19 plays, 26 total yards resulting in 5 punts and a lost fumble.
Ind -1 (Hou) - Loss (37-34 Hou in OT)
I mainly argued that Ind has played better against better opponents when making the case for this pick. Also, with Ind home and a spread of 1, I was thinking Ind to win SU was the pick.
Not good. Even though Ind came back to force OT and should have a minimum got a tie out of it (very odd decision to go for it late in OT, on your own side of the 50...), this was not a great pick. Ind scored on their possession but then got spanked, going down 28-10 in the 3rd before making their comeback.
Turnovers and poor rushing doomed the colts. Luck was sacked 7 times to Watson's 4, with two of those sacks causing a lost fumble. One would directly be defensive TD and the other put Hou on the 8 yard line, which was quickly another TD. In combination, Ind is not running the ball and not running it well when they do. Ind ran the ball for only 41 yards on 17 carries. After going down big, less running is understandable, but 2.4 yards per carries lets the defense dial into pass protection and go after the QB.
Phi -4 (@ Ten) - Loss (26-23 Ten in OT)
Few things one this one:
- It felt like a trap and I ignored it, thinking Mariota's injury versus Phi D would sink them
- Don't take road favorites of more than a FG, the line even moved to Phi -3 before kickoff
- Phi's pass rush is not the same it was last year, exposing a poor secondary
- Ten is finding a way to win, I'm baffled, but they are doing it somehow with the 22nd ranked overall DVOA
Oak -2.5 (Cle) - Win (45-42 Oak in OT)
I am a bit torn on Oak. They have been in all of their games, and a reason why I thought they were slightly underrated going into this one. Oak missed two FGs but were +2 in turnovers, so that is close to a wash.
Cleveland ran the ball better (Cle: 31 for 208 vs Oak: 29 for 139), with Chubb being the difference, 3 carries and 105 yards, while Hyde was decent with 3.7 ypc from 82 on 22 carries. The yards per attempt for the passing games were relatively close: Mayfield 7.2 ypa from 295 on 41, while Carr was 7.5 from 437 on 58.
This was a seemingly even game, with Cle able to get a few bigger plays, not necessary the Oak is better than Cle that I expected.
NYG +3.5 (NO) - Loss (33-18 NO)
The Giants started the game out well, scoring a touchdown on the opening drive after forcing a three-and-out on NO's first. But from there the Saints seemed to chip away until they finally broke through.
After going three-and-out, the next four drives from NO in the first half were all FG. Not bad for NYG's defense to limit the TDs, but in the second half the Saints broke through, scoring TDs on 3 of 4 drives before the final kneel down drive.
Barkley ran well for NYG, with over 4 ypc but that was only 44 yards on 10 carries. On the other side however, Kamara had over 7 with 134 on 19 (and all three of NO's TDs). NYG's D were able to bend-not-break in the first half, but they broke in the second and their offense could not keep pace for the entire game.
The sixth / first out pick was Pit -3, which would have been a loser. Bal played well, controlling the ball on both sides, especially in the second half. With their poor D, Pit has to keep scoring, and if an opposing D can limit their offense like Bal did, it gets ugly fast for Pit.