5 for 5 - W2 Recap
Week 2 saw a 2-3 record for the 5 for 5. There may be a condolence in the fact that the top 5 Super Contests picks went 0-5, according to VegasInsider.com, regardless, it is never pleasing to go under 0.500.
Let's review and learn from mistakes.
SF -6 (Loss)
LAR -12.5 (Win)
Hou PK (Loss)
NYG +3 (Loss)
Chi -3.5 (Win)
SF -6 was a confident pick, under the assumption that Det is actually a bad team this year. After being up 30-13 in the early 4th, Det moved the ball, racking up garbage time yards and nearly coming back to win the game. Something to remember going forward, a gut feel was that the Lions with Stafford are a good ATS bet when underdogs and poor when favorites. This is under the premise that their style play (good passing, bad rushing, bad pass rush) is more to come-from-behind play than holding a lead. However, 5dimes.eu put together ATS records of major quarterbacks before this season. Stafford is 53-66-6 ATS overall (42.4%), with splits of 23-35-2 ATS as an underdog (38.3%) and 30-31-4 as favorite (46.2%). All bad.
LAR -12.5 was assuming the Cardinals are not good and the Rams will keep their foot on the pedal. It held true. Rams are good, Cards are not.
Hou PK was certainly frustrating. Watson was able to connect with Fuller for strong numbers but Ten's D-line had Watson under pressure all game. Credit to Ten coaching for the successful fake punt and winning a game with Blaine Gabbert starting. Look at Gabbert's stats, he was managed effectively the entire game. Using the tools at SharpFootballStats.com and looking at Mariota versus Gabbert, Mariota had 69% of his passes go less than 15 yards whereas Gabbertt was 91%.
NYG +3 appeared over in the first quarter. As Mike Lombardi has said numerous times, bad O-lines don't travel. The Giants have an awful offensive line, Eli is not making up for it, and they cannot effectively utilize their other weapons because of it.
Chi -3.5 worked out as the research suggested. Chi's defensive front was all over the Seahawks and Wilson never really settled in. It is worth keeping an eye on Sea. Their offense seems out of sync under new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer while their defense is a shell of what it once was. My gut feel likes them at home to Dallas next week if it settles less than -3, but Sea could easily be a bottom third type team.