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  • Tony Bonk

5 for 5 - W10 Recap

We picked one game because we are smart and got screwed on four others! Just kidding, 1-4 is bad and the slide that started in October continues. Through 50 games we are 22-26-2 (45.8%, -6 units) with 35 left to go in the season (5 per week).


Let's see where we went wrong and how it can help us going forward.


Summary

1. NYJ -6.5 (Buf) - Loss (41-10 Buf)

2. Atl -4 (@ Cle) - Loss (28 - 16 Cle)

3. Tam -3 (Was) - Loss (16 - 3 Was)

4. Chi -6.5 (Det) - Win (34 - 22 Chi)

5. Phi -6.5 (Dal) - Loss (27 - 20 Dal)


1. NYJ -6.5 (Buf) - Loss (41-10 Buf)

I thought McCown versus Barkley was a no-brainer. Well Barkley had 9.28 yards per attempt compared to McCown's 3.97. Overall Buf crushed NYJ, gaining more than twice the yards, winning the Toss 2-0, going 8-16 on third down compared to 1-12.


The Jets D got shredded and their offense couldn't get anything going. It sure seemed like NYJ were not ready to play a competitive game.


2. Atl -4 (@ Cle) - Loss (28 - 16 Cle)

Oh that's right, Atl on the road and outdoors is very different than at home in their dome (or playing against a banged up Was team). I expected Atl to be able to pass on Cle and if they could (or could not), that would be the major pivot point of the game. Well they were not and even a late rally fell short as Cle didn't find a way to lose (good job by them), as it did repeatedly in much of the Hue Jackson era.


3. Tam -3 (Was) - Loss (16 - 3 Was)

Washington's offense lines injuries were the primary driver in this pick backed up by Tam's offensive numbers (and Was just getting smoked by Atl's pass attack the week before).


Tam only sacked Was 3 times for 8 yards as Was put up 116 yards rushing, so Was's patchwork O-line came through for them.


Regarding Tam's passing attack, they did as expected and had 501 total yards, 398 net passing. The big problem though? Turnovers! Tam lost the TO battle 4-0, and some of them at terrible spots on the field.


The first was an interception on the goal line during Tam's first drive. The next three TOs were interception, fumble, fumble on three straight drives in the fourth quarter. The pick gave Was the ball inside the 10 for a 3-and-out FG, then a fumble on the next drive after Tam got down to the Was 28, and finally another fumble (and maybe the worse one, as it seemed to be the dagger in Tam's heart) came after they once again drove the field and gave it up on Was's 4 yard line.


Tam has to control the ball, force some TOs, or else they high-powered offense will be nothing but fantasy relevant.


4. Chi -6.5 (Det) - Win (34 - 22 Chi)

We thought Chi would pressure Stafford and be able to take advantage of a weak Det defense. Both came to play, as Chi had 6 sacks and scored TDs on their first four possessions. That's 16 sacks against Det in two weeks (and they have Car on deck).


The only spot we were wrong on this one was that I thought it'd be a slow death for Det with Chi wearing them down in the run game. Chi crushed them in the pass game and was up 26-0 in the early second.


5. Phi -6.5 (Dal) - Loss (27 - 20 Dal)

As Michael Lombardi has said on GM Street, Phi is not playing with the lead and not completing third downs at nearly the rate as they were last year, and it is showing as the losses and "Super Bowl Hangover" continues. I do not recall if it was Lombardi or Gil Alexander on his Beating the Book pod, but Phi's number of plays while trailing is already double this year from what it was all of last year.


Dal had approximately 100 more rushing yards and Cooper is seeming to help this offense open up, but overall the stats were relatively close: total yards (410 Dal, 421 Phi), first downs (23 each), one turnover early that led to a Dal FG. Phi even had a couple chances to tie it late but falling short by 1 yard (turnover on downs) with 1:17 left at the Dal 29, then forcing a Dal punt, and having the clock run out on a lateral play at the Dal 9.


 

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