• Tony Bonk

5 for 5 - Recap

At 4-1, our 5 for 5 did well, here are notes to evaluate my decision making process with a few comments from around the league.

1. Cleveland +3.5 (Pit) - W

2. Cincinnati +3 (@ Ind) - W

3. New Orleans -9.5 (Tam) - L

4. Kansas City +3.5 (@ LAC) - W

5. Chicago +7.5 (@ GB) - W

Cleveland +3.5 (21-21 tie)

This got the win but was NOT a good pick. Browns were +5 in turnover margin and could not get the win. Turnovers are the most correlated factor to winning and this Tweet from Bill Barnwell sums it up:

Cincinnati +3 (won 34-23)

Indy jumped out to a quick lead (not expected), but could not hold on to it (expected). Ind could not effectively run the ball but were doomed by their poor pass defense. It will be difficult for the Colts to hold leads.

New Orleans -9.5 (lost 48-40)

You know when he announcers give a stat that you wish you had known? Some are meaningless but they twist the knife when you were dead wrong, like this did: The Saints have started 0-2 for the past 5 years! Every year since 2014.

To be honest, knowing the above, I likely would have still taken them. I did not expect TB to come out so aggressive as well as be so successful. NO's defense took a big jump from 2016 to 2017 and may be in for regression in 2018. They host the Browns in week 2 and will be big favorites again. If the Browns can move the ball effectively, then I am severely concerned for NO's defense.

Kansas City +3.5 (won 38-28)

Kansas City's offense was excellent and LAC could not keep up. Reid has put together an explosive offense. I will be interested to see how KC does in tight games, especially versus teams with a good pass rush. It was unfortunate that the LAC had some many injuries on D, but then again... a good LAC team, lots of potential, mounting injuries and early season losses? Sounds about right.

Chicago +7.5 (lost 24-23)

As a Lions fan, I feel for the Bears. Rodgers is good, stop this madness, GB has had Farve and then Rodgers?!!?!?!? Come on...

On a serious note, Chi's pass rush was unbelievable in the first half and GB did a great job of neutralizing it in the second half with quick passes. Chi looked good on both sides of the ball (a lot better than the Lions looked in week 1... <insert sad face>) until Rodgers starting dealing. Looking forward to when these two teams meet in Chicago later in the year.

Other Notes

It was a good stayaway to lay off of Oakland. Both road teams won big in MNF, Jets and Rams. We can be pretty sure that the Rams are good and appears that Oak is not, but with new coach / system / playing top tier team, we will see if Oak can improve as the year goes on.

Regarding the Jets, they picked off Stafford 4 times and walked all over the Lions D. The Jets over performed last year, expected to be terrible and turning out to be average to below average. They were well prepared and capitalized on Det's mistakes. Credit to the Jets, and I think this was more of the Lions being terrible and unprepared. Next week NYJ hosts Mia and Det goes to SF.


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