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  • Tony Bonk

5 for 1 - Week 7, 2018 Thursday Night Game

Not quite the full five yet, but a quick 5 for 1 on Thursday's game. The other four will be added later.


Summary

1. Ari (-1.5) (Den)

We went against Ari last week and going with them on a short week. This more of a Den fade than high confidence in Ari.

1 - Short week, travel, and Den just played a big game against a top team (LAR)

2 - Den gave up 208 yards to Gurley, and Ari certainly doesn't use David Johnson like they could (similar to Gurley) but he could take over this game, as in six games so far Den's opponents are averaging 161 rushing yards per game

3 - We used Den last week and they covered versus LAR, but that was partially because of their home-road splits, we are fading them now because of their poor road record: at home they are 2-2 and all games within 3 points, on road they are 0-2 and lost by 13 (Bal) and 18 (NYJ)

4 - Each teams schedule: Ari returning home after two game road trip and they stay home for Week 8, while Den is at KC next week, and albeit there is 10 days in-between those games, but KC on the schedule and only three days to prepare and travel for a perceived to be inferior opponent. It would certainly be tough for me to get up to play Ari and not start KC work if I were Den

5 - I said "perceived" to be an inferior team, and most stats play that out, for example DVOA has Den at 13th and Ari at 31st, however Ari's big issue in that rating is their offense (which isn't great, don't get me wrong) but it would be merely average to bad and not bottom of the league if not for the Bradford games to start the year. The yards per attempts difference between Rosen and Bradford is nearly 2 yards (6.96 vs 5 ypa), that is enough to bring Ari from bottom of the barrel in that stat to league average (Min and NYJ at 7 ypa are at 16 and 17th ranked; Ari's total season is rising and now at 5.5 ypa, but still 31st)

 

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