I'm fighting the spread, and winning.
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Bonk Against The Spread
Model Based NFL Picks
In 2018, I started this blog after reading the 'The 4-Hour Workweek'. I wanted to turn my football hobby into something more and with more research and weekly prep than ever before... I did awful. My percentage was hovering around a coin flip at mid-season, I was discouraged, and stopped posting my weekly picks.
It was not until Spring 2019, while taking the altMBA program, that my desire to turn my hobby into something more came back stronger than ever. But this time, not as a blog, but as a model. For 10+ years, I have hosted a SuperContest and Circa Sport Millions-like contest with a small group of friends. And to be honest, did I want to make a living betting on sports? (YES) But really, I simply wanted to get better. To not bounce around 50%, misunderstanding the variance with an average (at best) process.
But most of all,
I wanted to beat my friends.
So I went to work doing what I do best: building models. With an engineering and analytics career, I have been in countless spreadsheets and simulations. Revitalized, I went to work.
This website has evolved into tracking those picks. My model evaluates and ranks every NFL game each week, so I can focus on situational analysis to determine which picks are worthy of a bet or contest pick.
After extensive backtesting, it went over 60%. A number too good to be true, screaming 'overfit', but I was hooked on coding and applying it to each week.
Applying it in 2019, I went 63% ATS over 61 games using model-based rankings plus situational analysis.
My ATS model is back with a revamped Totals plus a new Straight-Up model to help 'Survivor' contests, I'm ready to take my work to the betting markets, playing the Westgate SuperContest, Circa Millions, and Circa Survivor. I'll post my picks and results here each week.
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